The Guess-The-Number Opening
Open by asking your audience to guess your headline market number, because being wrong makes them remember it.
- Difficulty
- Starter
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 7
- Confidence
- 75%
After a founder mentioned near the end of his pitch that group air travel is a $130 billion market representing 5% of all airline revenue, Shaan Puri identified it as a buried lead and prescribed a specific opening device: don't state the number, ask the audience to guess it. He enumerates three reasons it works. It projects confidence, because only someone who knows the answer invites the question. It makes the other person slightly insecure, which raises their attention. And they are almost always going to guess wrong when the real number is high, because they lack the framework to estimate it. The wrongness is the mechanism — the gap between their guess and the truth is what makes the number stick, where a flatly stated figure would wash past. Shaan pairs it with a second move: immediately follow the number with the absurdity that makes it an opportunity. In this case, that $130 billion still moves by people phoning an airline's group desk, while roughly 80% of other ticketing has been online for years. The device works because it converts a statistic into a small experience of being surprised.
Origin
The group-airfare founder gave what Shaan called an otherwise excellent pitch but mentioned his most compelling statistic late; Shaan reconstructed the opening around it and enumerated why the guessing device outperforms simply stating the figure.
Core principles
- 01A number you guess wrong is remembered; a number you're told is not.
- 02Inviting the guess signals you know the answer.
- 03Surprise requires a high number and a listener with no estimation framework.
- 04Pair the size with the absurdity — scale alone isn't an opportunity.
- 05Your most surprising fact belongs in the first minute, not the appendix.
How to run it
- 1
Find your buried lead
Locate the most surprising number in your pitch. Shaan's tell: if the hosts had to ask for it, it was in the wrong place.
- 2
Confirm it is unguessable
The device depends on the audience lacking the framework to estimate. If they can reason their way close, the surprise evaporates.
- 3
Define the category first
Shaan's version opens by defining terms — 'group travel is defined as 10 or more tickets' — so the guess is about magnitude, not interpretation.
- 4
Ask for the guess
'Guess how much revenue is booked per year doing that.' Wait for an actual answer rather than moving straight to the reveal.
- 5
Reveal and contextualise
State the figure and anchor it — $128-130 billion, 5% of all tickets — so the scale is legible relative to something known.
- 6
Follow with the absurdity
'And guess how they book it — they have to call the airline manually.' The gap between the money and the method is the opportunity.
- 7
Show it rather than say it
Shaan suggests screenshotting a booking site to show there is no group button — you have to go to help, then phone. That is where $130 billion flows.
In the wild
The founder's pitch reached $130 billion in group spend and 5% of airline revenue only under questioning. Shaan's rewrite opens by defining group travel as 10-plus tickets, asking the audience to guess annual revenue, revealing $128 billion, then revealing that it is all still booked by phone.
→ Sam agreed the founder 'buried the lead on that one a little bit' — the pitch was otherwise graded extremely clear and compelling by both hosts.
Common mistakes
Using it on a well-known market
If the audience can guess close, they experience no surprise and the device costs you time while making you look like you're stalling.
Revealing the number without the absurdity
Market size alone is not an opportunity. The persuasive content is the mismatch between how much money moves and how primitively it moves.
Asking before defining the category
Without a precise definition the audience guesses at a different question, and the reveal lands as a technicality rather than a shock.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone pitching a category whose size is genuinely surprising and buried in a later slide.
Not ideal for
Markets whose scale is already common knowledge, where the guess will be roughly right and the device falls flat.
From the transcript
“guess how much revenue is booked per year doing that yeah guess how much revenue is a nice one a confidence b makes the other…”
“you say 128 billion that's 5 of all tickets are booked that way and guess how they book it they have to call the airline…”
“he buried the lead on that one a little bit”
From the episode
MFM Demo Day: 5 Startups Pitch Sam & Shaan and Raise $1.7M
MFM Demo Day